#96: This dummies guide to KZN politics

It's official our complacency is actually stupid and it is time to change, quick

For the fifth time this week someone smart and white asked me oh so innocently, ‘Who is MK?”. Trouble-cometh from complacency so here’s this dummies guide to KZN politics:

Firstly: And this is the big one. In KZN we don’t have the liberty of voting for people, parties, or policies we like. That’s for spoilt rich kids who live in the Nordics with judicial systems that actually work. Seriously. If you are seeing politics as a pathway to your policy-induced heaven or your tribal comfort zone you are in lala land. Out here we need Occams razor. Honest-ish. Criminals. Those are the only two choices we have.

This is how an election works where the ruling party is below 50%. The first group of ‘allies’ to reach 50 wins and the party with the biggest stick (most votes) at that table makes all the calls. In 2024 the maths is simple. Currently in the province the ANC sits at 28% and falling. MK’s at 28% and is climbing (but it should come down). The DA is clawing it’s way up from 18%, the IFP is floundering around 17% while the EFF cheerfully broods at 5%. You are smart enough to do the maths. Parties are going to get cozy to get over 50 and whoever wins decides the fate of almost 11.1 million people, 7,000,000 of whom still live below one of the poverty lines without running water.

I need to be literal to land on this point. Forgive me. Our most fatal error seems to be that we think we have the luxury of making our political choices as acts of consumption. And we don’t. Not if we’re awake to the fact that the only real choice we have is honest or criminal. Why? Big parties are going to form the winners of the KZN governing coalition. The number shows us so. ANC/MK/EFF. DA/ANC. Conspicuous by their absence in KZN are the ‘cool’ political brands we think will tarnish us just a bit less than the rest (because they haven’t had time to) and that’s the problem. Us making this decision like consumers. We’re not really to blame. A thousand times a year we swipe a credit card and all that repetition makes us think we can always choose what we want, but we are wrong. Possibly disastrously wrong. In real life and politics what counts is strategic service.

Secondly: Let’s assume we want those without criminal records or charges to serve us. Now our whopping list is whittled down to just a few.

At the top of that list is probably Mmusi Maimane BOSSA. I LOVE Musi. And who doesn’t love that first date feeling with new political parties, but what the actual F? Aside from the fact they are not even close to 1%, voting for them is like playing Russian roulette. Have we learned nothing? It is irrelevant what people say. It is what they do that counts. I know this is important because I climbed into a boxing ring in a heavyweight competition in a dark corner of the Bluff. My opponent was about thirty kilograms heavier than me and a head taller and halfway through the first round I was escorted out nursing an exploded eardrum. You don’t bet on the untested (I am talking about me) in a provincial boxing ring without having seen them fight in their correct weight category before.

Thirdly: Yes, ACTION SA is awesome. Yes, Herman Mashaba might be the most compelling honest politician there is in SA. But no, he’s probably not a viable solution for the who gets to 50 first game we have to play in KZN this year. Currently his team is polling at 1% and those polls are rarely wrong.

And finally: Of course the DA has toxic elements. Which big group of humans doesn’t. And who doesn’t hate the racist undertone that haunts their halls and those foolishly-lilly-white billboards. But again, here is the bottom like it or not - they’re at 20%-ish and honest. And they’ve run a province before. Well. None of the others can say that. None. And yes, Khayelitsha in Cape Town does have sewage running in its streets. I was there a week ago to see. But that is because it was built for 300,000 people and is currently home to a million provincial refugees who just want work, water and service delivery.

The real way to test Khayelitsha if you’re interested is to take a walk into any one of their many libraries on a Saturday afternoon like I did (there are 102 in the city) and stand in awe of the hundreds and hundreds of kids gathered around chess boards and computer screens with lightning-fast internet just because they can. Then take the time to visit the astro turf soccer fields, crystal clear pools or bicycle tracks where other kids from the area lounge productively in world-class, safe facilities. And, if fate allows it, crawl over some tin roofs looking for a drone until the middle of the night like I did feeling the general public vibe. I’ve spent my adult life in Durban townships. I’ve been mugged and held at gunpoint more times than I can remember, but in Cape Town it is different. I didn’t often get to that point where I feel like might actually die which was nice.

I know this piece is dreadfully on the nose but we really, really need to shed our fantasy and wake up to our reality. As a province here are our options in descending order of chaos -

One: People like me and you to get off our high horses and finally realize that politics is a part of our lives and start to participate before it truly bites us in the ass. It is late in the game but in this fantasy scenario we finally unite our vote strategically instead of listening to the swirling, destructive online rhetoric. Maybe some sense and urgency finally kick in and with less than twenty days to go we even get involved and do some digital campaigning for a big, honest party. Because of our efforts, hooray, we easily pushed the DA to 23% (they we close in December 2023), the IFP climbs back to 22%, and with a wish and lots of prayers we scatch our way to an honest coalition that can bring real change.

What actualizes this fantasy to reality? The person staring faintly back at you amidst the glow of your screen. And you are not stupid. Not in every other area of your life and it is time for that same sense of clarity to click in so you can get to work. Quick.

And yes, I’m ok with the DA playing big-brother in this scenario. I’ve spent enough time with Chris Pappas to see the cracks and there are not many. He truly loves people and wants to serve. So no, I don’t think it is smart to dilute his power in a colation with the IFP or anyone else. Coaltions are messy enough and someone has to lead.

Two: Politics kicks in and after staring at each other in disbelief across the negotiation table the DA and ANC agree the devil you know is better than your shared worst enemy and they find a solution. Frans Cronje's view is the markets will drive this outcome for good. This is currently our most likely, ‘best-case scenario’. But oh wait, in this scenario the ANC still has power (which will be our fault by the way) and so we are stuck pretty much where we are with dishonest leadership at the helm which is still better than option three.

Three: JZ takes back power with the bad half of the ANC (minus Cryil) and the EFF. Then things get really messy for five years at least. Our system is fragile. And precarious. Propped up by just a few pillars - foreign investment, a tiny tax pool, half our population’s reliance on their government grant for daily bread and property rights. Start tugging at any one of those pillars irresponsibly and ten of millions of people who can’t afford plane tickets are going to be buried under a pile of rubble so deep they might never come out from under it.

Ok, I am landing this burning plane. I am no political analyst, just a servant who is not on the sidelines. My point is narrow. It’s time to get uncomfortable and do the work. Figure it out. Sense check the latest polls. Because at the end of the day this conversation is entirely self-serving at first. We are talking about your property prices. Water in your taps. The quality of water in the taps. Kids schools marks, crime, justice, etc etc etc etc etc etc…

Of course like buying cryptocurrency or taking a life policy working to elect an honest government is dangerously speculative. And public. But that is what this moment requires. The courage to try.

PS. The first image is from Cato Manor where Mel and I work. It is 3km from the Durban CBD. The footage is from three years ago but it was the same when I was there a week ago. Possibly worse

PSS: If this mail is helpful forward the crap out of it to friends and family. 35 days and counting. Now is a good a time as any to start working

PSSS: This is not an anti-MK piece. At my core I live to challenge South Africa’s systemic racial inequality. But looking over my shoulder I cannot reconcile that dishonest/criminal leadership will usher in the left-ish liberation my bones seek. We need radical reform (for more see here) but the evidence is overwhelming. In South Africa corrupt leaders entrench inequality due to selfishness that is truly insane

PSSSS: See some inside perspectives on Chris Pappas here and here

PSSSSS: It is probably unfair of me to paint everyone in the ANC with the same dirty brush. Not cool. Like I said I am no political analysis just a dummy who is looking at broken systems that is really, really, really hurting innocent people who the ANC should have protected. Much more uncool

PSSSSS: If you are ready to start working just click this link. We’ve turned Whatsapp status into a TV channel and with your help we can make it just that much bigger